Materials recycling in China not enough to reach net-zero emissions – reduced demand must play a role

Based on L. Song et al. China’s bulk material loops can be closed but deep decarbonization requires demand reduction. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01782-6 (2023)

Recycling bulk materials can realize significant GHG savings but China case study shows that circular economy strategies are needed to reach net zero emission targets.

The Policy Problem

Bulk materials, such as cement, steel, aluminum, and glass, are the backbone of modern life, and are essential for building, transportation, technology, and more. However, production of bulk materials accounts for ~70% of global industrial CO2 emissions. Decarbonizing bulk materials production is a unique challenge– industrial processes require high temperatures and complex chemical reactions, and polluting infrastructure, once installed, lasts decades. Recycling eliminates GHG emissions from materials production but these savings are partially offset by emissions created in the recycling process. Additionally, some materials such as plastics are difficult to recycle. To reach net-zero, materials recycling must be accompanied with a reduction in demand. This study explores strategies for a circular economy including measures that reduce demand for bulk materials.

Key Findings and Proposed Solutions

  • Bulk materials recycling alone falls short of net-zero emission targets due to economic challenges and thermodynamic constraints.

  • Circular economy strategies such as improved scrap recovery, more intensive material use, and lifetime extension are necessary for deep decarbonization.

  • China could source most of its bulk material through recycling by 2060 with the implementation of key strategies that reduce primary material demand.